Behind The Net: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
New Blog: Along The Olentangy for Ohio State Fans!

Zetterberg vs Lecavalier defensively

There was a particularly insightful post over at Irreverent Oiler Fans comparing Henrik Zetterberg to Vincent Lecavalier. The gist of it is that their offensive stats may be comparable, but when you look at both +/- and shots directed at the net, Lecavalier is very weak defensively compared to Zetterberg.

If I run the 5v5 shot analysis from below on these two, I get something like this:
PlayerGASASPCTEXP GAEXP SPCT
Lecavalier3122986522.55902
Zetterberg1616490214.37912


EXP GA is the expected number of goals allowed by each player, assuming a league average goaltender. EXP SPCT is the expected save percentage under those same conditions.

Two things come out of this data:

1) Lecavalier gives up a lot more shots on goal when he's on the ice than Zetterberg.
2) The shots Lecavalier gives up aren't better shots, but Tampa's goaltending is a lot worse than average, so it looks like opponents score a lot more when he's on the ice.

I think this is the best way to visualize the situation:



Lecavalier leads Zetterberg in two major categories of shots allowed: very high percentage shots (20% chance of scoring, usually within 10 feet of the goal) and low percentage shots (2.5% chance of scoring). Those two cases cancel each other out, so overall, the average opponent shot when Lecavalier is on the ice isn't any tougher for the goalie to handle. This shows up in the minimal difference in expected save percentage.

But that doesn't change the fact that Lecavalier simply allows a lot more shots when he's on the ice, and even if they're not tough to handle, he's going to allow a lot more goals than Zetterberg.

0 recs  |  Comment 5 comments |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

Once again, nice analysis.

We follow the Tampa Bay Lightning as well as the Phoenix Coyotes, and perceptively, we thought that Lecavalier was doing very well comparatively to the other forwards and to his teammates.

Stats tell us otherwise. Thanks!

by PB on Dec 29, 2007 10:10 AM EST reply actions  

stats done tell everything about an individuals defensive performance. youre extrapolating numbers from an individual as if its an encapsulated scenario. sure, you bring up better goaltending but you also forget that Detroit has way better defensemen on the ice when Zetterberg is out there which can keep shot totals down, the puck in the offensive zone and keep peoples plus-minus stats high (like say, Dany Heatley's +33 or whatever it is at the moment - even though in the SCF's of last season him and Jason Spezza didnt look like they were interested in hustling or playing responsible defense.).

you can abstract these guys out all you want with numbers and charts but it never tells the entire story or how talented the players ability to actually "defend" is.

dungeons and dragons for hockey nerds

by savagist on Dec 29, 2007 11:20 AM EST reply actions  

Savagist - there is no doubt that it is difficult to separate individual statistics from team statistics. I will never deny that.

But if you read the original post at Irreverent Oiler Fans, you'll see that the author expressed some doubt as to how much Tampa's goaltending affected Lecavalier's +/-. And I attempted to quantify that effect here, and I think it showed convincingly that, among other things, Zetterberg benefits from better goaltending.

Are you trying to say that Lecavalier is better defensively than Zetterberg? That if we put them both with average teammates, Lecavalier wouldn't appear to have any defensive deficiencies? That's an untenable position, and you can't back that up.

At any rate, I'd like to know what you think does tell the entire story about Lecavalier's defense. I am always looking for insights that will improve the analysis I do.

by Hawerchuk on Dec 29, 2007 2:58 PM EST reply actions  

Hi Hawerchuk -

We looked closely at Lecavalier's play today against the Flyers.

It seems that both Irreverent Oiler Fan and you are pretty close to spot on with Number 4's tendencies defensively.

Sure, he gets the puck deep and puts himself into scoring position. However, he (and his line) allowed the opposition to score four shots on the goalie.

I'm in the middle with stats telling the entire story, as they cannot be used in a vacuum, but here it is clear that Zetterberg is the better overall player.

There were many times where Lecavalier let up when the opposition took control of the puck. I thought he was getting better at that, but clearly he's not.

by PB on Dec 29, 2007 5:07 PM EST reply actions  

hi pb - thanks for watching #4's defensively play. That's really the best way for people to evaluate their teams, though obviously it's hard to watch all 30 teams.

I find the numbers really help when I'm looking at a team I don't really know. And if they don't jive with what fans of that team see when they watch the game closely, we have to go back to the drawing board and figure out why.

by Hawerchuk on Dec 29, 2007 9:55 PM EST reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Hockey Analysis and Statistics
Start posting on Behind The Net »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

Connect_with_facebook

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

Pens_ring_small
Why The Kovalchuk Contract Is Unique
Ryan_small
Koivu's contract compared to Plekanec & Backstrom
Dsc_0572_small
Wimbledon Black Swan
Pens_ring_small
Individual PDO Numbers

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

SBNation.com Recent Stories

PHILADELPHIA - MAY 16:  A fan of the Philadelphia Flyers holds up a sign reading "Next Goalie" behind goalie Carey Price #32 of the Montreal Canadiens in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals during the 2010 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs at Wachovia Center on May 16, 2010 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.  (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)

Habs Finally Lock Up Carey Price, Sign Goalie To Two-Year Deal

National Hockey League commissioner Gary Bettman answers questions during a pre-game media availability before the Pittsburgh Penguins season opener against the New York Rangers in a NHL hockey game in Pittsburgh, Friday, Oct. 2, 2009. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar) +25 updates

Ultimatum? NHL Reportedly Threatens To Toss Out Kovalchuk, Luongo Deals Without NHLPA Concessions

Photo +1 updates

Report: Donald Fehr Hands NHLPA List Of Conditions On Becoming Union Leader

More from SBNation.com >


Managers

Hawerchuk_small Hawerchuk