Malcolm Gladwell's Outliers and making the NHL

One thing that's very unintuitive about this effect is that, other things being equal, if you have a 17-year-old player who puts up the same number of points as an 18-year-old player, the 17-year-old will have a much higher performance ceiling. I like to call this the 'Wayne Gretzky-Dan Hodgson' effect - two players who had identical stats their last year in junior; but Gretzky was 16 and Hodgson was 19, and so it was obvious who would have the better NHL career.
At any rate, if you have identical junior players born in January and December, the December player was almost a year younger when he achieved his performance. If we project that performance forward to Age 23, then we'd expect the December player, on average, to be better. And this is an effect we see when we compare the birthdates of junior hockey players to NHL players:

The first time that players aren't strictly grouped by birthdate is when they reach professional leagues. At this point, younger players outperform older players by a wide margin, making the jump from junior hockey to the NHL at a 50% higher rate. Gladwell mentions in his ESPN interview that "Canada is squandering the talents of hundreds of boys with late birthdays." It seems pretty clear that he's right.
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by slapshot on Jan 28, 2009 4:40 PM EST reply actions
by Hawerchuk on Jan 28, 2009 4:42 PM EST reply actions
by Colin and Elaine on Feb 6, 2009 1:11 PM EST reply actions
by Hawerchuk on Feb 6, 2009 1:17 PM EST reply actions
So the crux of the issue is not the ceiling thing - its that you never get a chance at being an NHL prospect if you got relegated to house league from an early age. You don't get the same coaching as the rep kid. Thats not reversible later.
Gladwell claims that the NHL is just as poorly distributed as juniors...does anyone have the data?
by Colin and Elaine on Feb 7, 2009 1:24 AM EST reply actions
Updated: December 8, 2008
of the 512 NHL Players:
Jan-Mar 31%
Apr-Jun 28%
Jul-Sep 22%
Oct-Dec 19%
by Colin and Elaine on Feb 7, 2009 1:42 AM EST reply actions
Among the very best players, being younger is ultimately a huge advantage - but it doesn't show up until they're trying to make the jump to the NHL.
by Hawerchuk on Feb 7, 2009 10:06 AM EST reply actions
If it includes players who came up / were selected under systems which have a different cut-off date or variable cut-off dates this will blur the association.
by Drugmonkey on Sep 8, 2009 1:46 PM EDT reply actions
by Hawerchuk on Sep 9, 2009 12:01 AM EDT reply actions

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