Defensive Systems and their Impact on Shot Location

by Hawerchuk on Aug 28, 2009 8:48 PM EDT Comment 7 comments

As we saw a few weeks ago, Jacques Lemaire’s defensive system substantially limits the rate at which opponents take high-percentage shots against his teams. This effect has been persistent over the course of nearly a decade. This made me wonder what impact other coaches have on shots faced by their teams.

What the chart below shows is - for each coach in all years that he coached - the difference between league-wide save percentage and the save percentage each team expected given the shots they allowed.


Coach +EXS% YRS
Lemaire 4.3 7
Hitchcock 3.4 5
B. Sutter 2.8 5
Mactavish 2.0 7
Julien 2.0 4
Trotz 1.7 7
Martin 1.3 6
Wilson 1.2 6
Ruff 0.9 7
Quinn 0.8 4
Tippett 0.3 6
Crawford -0.8 6
Tortorella -1.0 6
Maurice -1.0 4
Carlyle -1.3 4
Gretzky -1.5 4
Quenneville-1.7 6
A. Murray -2.3 6
Babcock -2.3 6
Laviolette -3.2 5
Hartley -3.5 4

As you can see, Lemaire stands out, though it would be interesting to see how the shot location chart looks for Hitchcock's teams. Bob Hartley brings up the rear for coaches who coached four seasons or more - his poor performance may be entirely due to having Ilya Kovalchuk on the ice most of the game.

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The only issue there is the results due to the system or the defensive ability of the players? Its most likely a combination of the two.

by Moneypuck on Aug 29, 2009 11:44 AM EDT reply actions

Presumably the personnel changes over 5-7 years and multiple teams takes care of that issue.

by Hawerchuk on Aug 29, 2009 7:05 PM EDT reply actions

I understand that, and you're most likely part in some sense, but your point about Hartley and Kovalchuck may in some cases, misprepresent the numbers.

The list makes sense for most part, but it just may be a tad misleading.

by Moneypuck on Aug 30, 2009 11:35 AM EDT reply actions

Highly interesting.

A question:

Are the results for even strength/5-on-5 play only, or for all game situations?

by JLikens on Aug 31, 2009 1:54 PM EDT reply actions

B.Sutter...can that be Brent? He's only coached at the NHL level for 2 years though.

by Kent W. on Sep 2, 2009 10:52 PM EDT reply actions

Do you have the numbers for Vignault? Recent numbers for Keenan? (ie in Calgary?) vs carreer? I would also be interested to see the numbers for Bowman if it's possible.
Thanks.

by Cima Coppi on Sep 3, 2009 11:56 AM EDT reply actions

i'd be very curious about offense under those hitchcock/lemaire systems - i.e. is their ability to prevent goals at one end also preventing goals at the other end of the ice?

by Triumph on Sep 3, 2009 2:55 PM EDT reply actions

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