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Bad Incentives

Sunny Mehta brings up an interesting point in the comments about one-goal games:

"if you owned an NHL team and could somehow swallow the puck for three periods and get to OT every game, your team would be guaranteed 82 points plus a ~50% shot at 82 points = 123 points on average in a season!"

I've shown the effect Sunny is referring to below.  I took a .500 team and a .450 team and simulated their seasonal point totals at different league-wide scoring levels.  At 3 goals per game (roughly where we are today), the .500 team gets roughly 10% more points per season than the .450 team.  As goal-scoring drops, the gap between the teams drops, until it's non-existent if there's no scoring:

Gpg_medium

If we played every game until somebody scored the winner, this effect wouldn't exist.  But the NHL's overtime and shootout system awards extra points to teams that go beyond regulation, and, in particular, awards points in no relation to any consequential team hockey skill in the shootout.  If you were running a bad team, it would be to your advantage to play as defensively as possible during the regular season.  All else being equal, if you reduce your goal scoring and your opponent's goal scoring by the same percentage amount, you'll be more likely to make the playoffs.  Of course, the real rewards don't start coming until goal-scoring drops to about 40% of its current levels.  It would be tough to build a team that played that defensively.

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I was just thinking about this the other day actually

It’s stats like these that make me think i’m not crazy for hating the shootout.

"Fear the Fin: where some fans chose to swathe themselves in baseless optimism all season long." -CTGray

by workthecycle on Oct 22, 2009 5:56 PM EDT reply actions  

If there’s no extra point, then there’s no incentive to slow the game down. The SO doesn’t distort the game at current offense levels…But if they dropped 20%, you could see some outliers taking advantage of it.

by Hawerchuk on Oct 22, 2009 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

I guess it makes more sense “in this system” to build a average team that way. Its probably why a team like Florida is doomed unless their kid forwards break out and Vokoun stays godly.

by Moneypuck on Oct 26, 2009 1:24 AM EDT reply actions  

It’s a bit of an absurd argument, but it does make rather clear that the NHL’s system of 2.23-point games is patently ridiculous. For the love of God, either make it all W-L or make regulation wins worth all three theoretically available points.

SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.

by Doogie2K on Oct 26, 2009 8:51 PM EDT reply actions  

I think your three-point idea is the best. The days when you knew if a team was good because they had 90 points in an 80 game season were a lot less confusing.

by Hawerchuk on Oct 26, 2009 11:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

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