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Pacific Division Previews


Over the last month, I wrote previews for the Pacific Division over at Puck Prospectus.  The order of finish comes from Tom Awad's VUKOTA projection system, which is further based on Tom's GVT statistic.  GVT combines all of a player's contributions - goals, penalties, face-offs, PP and PK, among other things - into a single number which can be used to evaluate his performance.  Links to the previews are below the jump...

Star-divide

VUKOTA pegs the projected order of finish as:

1. Anaheim Ducks

2. San Jose Sharks [very close behind]

3. Dallas Stars

4. Los Angeles Kings

5. Phoenix Coyotes

Anaheim and San Jose are essentially tied in the VUKOTA rankings, with Dallas on the bubble for the last playoff spot.  I don't agree - I think San Jose is a better team than Anaheim, particularly in light of the Ducks gutting their defense.  And I think the gap between the Kings and Dallas is quite small - LA was extremely shot unlucky last year, while Dallas is content to ride a below-average Marty Turco into the sunset.  At any rate, please give these a read and try to focus on my witty commentary. 

VUKOTA and GVT are not without their detractors, but keep in mind that hockey analysis is about 15 years behind baseball in terms of figuring things out - and in 1994, baseball analysis focused entirely on hitting with many people convinced, quite rightly, that you couldn't evaluate pitching and defense using traditional statistics.  Figuring out exactly how good every player is is a herculean undertaking - Roland Beech offers some insights on basketball that are applicable to hockey as well.

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Welcome to SBNation and I look forward to your Atlantic Division Preview. I did a breakdown of the Flyers’ VUKOTA and wasn’t convinced they got it right.

Broad Street Hockey -
Makin' it look mean since 1967.

by Geoff Detweiler on Sep 30, 2009 8:40 PM EDT reply actions  

hi Geoff – can you post your analysis? The more people who look the system over the better.

by Hawerchuk on Sep 30, 2009 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

I have to say

I am very interested – but also very skeptical – of advanced hockey statistics. I think with the way the game is so freeflowing and not essentially a series of one by one matchups like baseball is it’s so tough to determine what exactly a player contributes.

I do think it will happen eventually though. Love the blog by the way.

http://twinkietalk.com
http://thecollegehockeyblog.com

by fetch9 on Sep 30, 2009 11:23 PM EDT reply actions  

Glad you like the blog!

I think we have to differentiate (like Roland does in his interview) between regression models and the like and quantitative scouting. NHL teams already use metrics that look like advanced hockey statistics – they watch tape and count everything: scoring chances (and grade them), defensive plays, breakouts. So I think that train has already left the station – it’s just not random fans (a la Bill James) who are driving it like they did with baseball.

by Hawerchuk on Oct 1, 2009 12:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

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