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The Flames-Leafs blockbuster trade: Why Lou Lamoriello Probably Thinks that Both Teams Lose

Everyone has their opinion about who got the upper hand in the recent Flames Leafs trade. But I bet if you ask Lou Lamoriello - the New Jersey Devils GM - who won, he'll just shake his head and laugh at GMs Sutter and Burke and their respective attempts to claw their way ahead by block buster trades.

First off, Lamoriello is one of the most successful GMs in NHL history, having built a team that made the playoffs in 18 of 20 seasons, went to the finals four times, and won it all twice. Obviously he's doing something right. So why might Lou be laughing in derision? Look at Lou's current roster and you'll notice a few things. Of the 33 players on the roster, 55% of them (18 players!) were drafted by Devil management. Some 6 Devils drafted in the first round still play for their drafting team. Only one player on the roster was picked up in a trade; Jamie Langenbrunner, and that was all the way back in 2002.

Lou builds his team through the draft, carefully grooming and nurturing his players in the farm system, and finally debuting them in the NHL when they are ready. And he keeps them. For a long time. Plotting headline grabbing trades doesn't seem to be part of his toolbox.

The Flames and Leafs, on the other hand, are made up of a hodge podge of players drafted by other teams and acquired through trades. Take the Leafs. Only 8 of the 26 players on the Leafs roster were originally drafted by Leafs management (Kaberle, Ponikarovsky, Mitchell, Kulemin, Reimer, Stalberg, Gunnarson, and Schnee). Only 1 player drafted by the Leafs in the first round still plays on the team, that being Luke Schenn. Everyone else has arrived via a trade or free agent signing.

As for the Flames, only seven of its 28 player roster were original Flames drafts (Moss, Nystrom, McElhinney, Prust, Boyd, Pardy, & Backlund). Two first-rounders are still around - Eric Nystrom and Mikael Backlund - but the former has evolved into a fourth liner, and the latter is still untried. Whereas only one player on the Devil's roster arrived via trade, almost half the Flame's roster is a product of trades!

Lou is not alone. As the chart below shows, successful teams like Colorado, Dallas, and Detroit all sport a high number of their own drafts on their rosters.

Chart1_medium 

The above comparison sufficiently highlights the vast difference in management styles between the Lamoriellos of the NHL and the Burkes/Sutters. Both the Flames and the Leafs are trying to build teams by acquisition rather than through the draft. Big trades are sexy and attention grabbing, but if New Jersey is any guide to building an effective team, the slow but steady process of drafting a player and nurturing them through the farm team system has been far more successful.

It might be argued that keeping your players during their slumps rather than surprising them and their families with trades demonstrates to the player a degree of respect and commitment, and may get them to better contribute. Teams operating as "profit maximizing" businesses, surprising their players with sudden transactions that they only hear about after in the press, may be the sorts of teams that don't inspire their players. Perhaps GMs Burke and Sutter should get back to the bricks and mortar method of team-building, treating their players as works in progress rather than trading fodder.

One could make the argument that, while the Flames and Leafs have dealt most of their original drafts away, that's not a knock on the actual quality of the Flames/Leafs scouting departments. A well-chosen draft pick, after all, can be exchanged for a proven veteran. Some statistics will put this argument to a quick death. The chart below shows the number of players currently active that have been drafted by each of the 30 NHL team. Scott Gomez, for example, counts in the New Jersey tally, since the Devils drafted him though he now plays for Montreal.

  Chart2_medium 

Now Toronto doesn't look so bad in this graph, having drafted 25 active players. Indeed, that's better than Detroit's 24 active drafs! But take a look at the quality of Detroit's drafts: Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Lidstrom, Knuble, and many more. Those 24 players have combined for a total of 4655 points since being drafted by the Wings. Toronto's best existing draft is the excellent Thomas Kaberle, but the next best in terms of points is... Fred Modin, followed by Nik Antropov. Hardly elite players. Probably the most decent draft in recent times by Leafs management was Brad Boyes, but he was sent to San Jose for veteran Owen Nolan. Sum the point totals of all Toronto drafts and you get a measly 2885, far below Detroit's totals.

As for Lou and the Devils, they have an impressive 34 players drafted still in action. These players have scored an incredible 7707 points! And that doesn't include the amazing goal tending contribution by Marty Brodeur. Lou and his scouts have a fine eye for young talent, and the numbers prove it.

The Flames have been true duds in the draft. Only 17 players drafted by the Flames still play in the NHL, the most significant being Cory Stillman who had his best years after leaving that organization (Iginla was drafted by Dallas, not Calgary). The other notable active Flame draft, Dion Phaneuf, is no longer Flames' property. Point totals for Flames-drafted players sum to a meagre 2485. That's one third of what Lou Lamoriello's Devils management has contributed to the point totals of the current NHL talent pool.

So to conclude this somewhat long winded essay, Lou probably thinks the Flames and Leafs are nuts, since the true way to long term success is not via trades but old fashioned and arduous team building. This doesn't mean trades should never be used. Rather, it means that they are a secondary tool to complement the vital development chain, which includes a good scouting group, a well run farm system, and hard working team-player relationships department. GMs like Sutter waste valuable time plotting huge trades that might be spent improving their teams in these less sexy but more fundamental ways.

Flames management should know this, since the great Flames teams of the 80s and early 90s were populated with amazing Flames drafts: Gary Roberts, Theo Fleury, Hakan Loob, Gary Suter, Joe Nieuwendyk, and Al Macinnis. Leafs, perennial underperformers, would do well to figure this out too. Don't expect these glitzy trades to turn around either team. The New Jerseys, Colorados, and Detroits of the NHL will continue to dominate.

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“won it all twice”

thrice – ’95, ’00, ’03

by sunnymehta.com on Feb 2, 2010 1:49 PM EST reply actions  

Montreal follows the model, but can’t get any better. sigh

Hockey blogging can't get any flatter.

by saskhab on Feb 3, 2010 1:18 AM EST reply actions  

Montreal is one of the better drafting teams in the league, but can’t get that requisite “home run” pick due to a combination of bad luck, refusal to tank, inability to develop players, and the most hostile fans in pro sports. Well, that’s not true, they have hit a couple home-runs — Markov, for one, and their goalies aren’t looking too shabby either — but they’re still looking for that one forward.

Eventually, though, they’ll land one or two from sheer volume. Hopefully the fans won’t then just boo them out of town before they break out.

Great job on the graphs. Puts numbers on some questions I had about drafting even though I intuitively knew the answers (I knew the Habs put a lot of draftees in the NHL — I just didn’t realize exactly how many.)

by MathMan on Feb 3, 2010 10:49 AM EST up reply actions  

Just to be devil’s advocate: three of the last five cup winners (Tampa Bay, Carolina, Anaheim) are below average on both of your charts. Another – Pittsburgh – I’m inclined to discount as well. Teetering on bankruptcy, icing a horrible team and getting five top 5 picks (four 1st or 2nd, including Crosby in the post-lockout lottery) in 5 years isn’t exactly a model any owner should be following.

There is no arguing the success New Jersey has had, but there are many ways to build a competitive team. Focusing solely on the draft to the exclusion of free agents and trades can be problematic. Montreal and Edmonton should clearly be a warning to owners everywhere – there’s more to building a truly successful team than drafting NHL calibre players and holding on to them.

Yesterday is dead, but not my memory.

by daoust on Feb 3, 2010 8:59 AM EST reply actions  

Teetering on bankruptcy, icing a horrible team and getting five top 5 picks (four 1st or 2nd, including Crosby in the post-lockout lottery) in 5 years isn’t exactly a model any owner should be following.

Of course not, but if you’re already in that situation there are few better examples of how to dig yourself out of the hole than the Penguins. Crosby was their lucky home-run, but even without him, Evgeni Malkin, Marc-Andre Fleury and Jordan Staal make up a good core.

There is no arguing the success New Jersey has had, but there are many ways to build a competitive team. Focusing solely on the draft to the exclusion of free agents and trades can be problematic.

Yes, and jpkoning acknowledged as much in his post.

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by Nate Rose on Feb 4, 2010 12:37 AM EST up reply actions  

Nice Job

Good stuff here.

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by Rob Luker on Feb 3, 2010 9:39 AM EST reply actions  

Good job

The second draft highlights the difference in player development more than drafting. The reason the Wings have so many more points than the Leafs is that they get more out of their players.

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by PPP on Feb 3, 2010 10:05 AM EST reply actions  

“DAL includes Minnesota early 90s” = “DAL includes Modano” :)

I’ll echo the others here: great job here!

Did Lou mention that he has the luxury of working for a team that was patient? Cities where hockey is truly part of the culture, like Toronto and Calgary, are a bit more pushy. Of course, that’s no excuse for their HORRIBLE draft records, just for all the trading they do.

by Rob Vollman on Feb 3, 2010 10:29 AM EST reply actions  

I agree that drafting is important and that the teams that draft well have a better chance of success, but I don’t see how that then means trades (headline grabbing or otherwise) are a bad idea. It’s because the Flames have made good decisions with trades and free agents that they’ve been able to overcome a poor draft record. If they had just stuck with the guys they drafted, they’d probably be awful. Since the lockout they’ve made the playoffs each year (not many teams can say that) and they’ve won their division once. That’s a strong performance. So why condemn them for it? Finally, I very much doubt have the Devils GM is “shaking his head” at the idea of making trades to better one’s team. Or was Lou also “shaking his head” at Burke when he acquired Pronger too, giving up draft picks and prospects have could have been nurtured in the organization? There are good trades (big and small) and bad ones. I don’t think it’s sensible to paint them all with the same brush.

by Scott Reynolds on Feb 3, 2010 1:27 PM EST reply actions  

I just wanted to say: this is very nice work by JP. I hope he stops by to answer some questions :)

by Hawerchuk on Feb 3, 2010 1:54 PM EST reply actions  

Thanks for all the comments, folks.

It’s the chicken and egg problem. Do the Flames focus on trades because they make bad drafts, or do they make bad drafts because they count so much on trades? Dunno. I’ve approached it assuming the latter, but I could be wrong.

Let me just say that if you want to copy the two teams that have won more than one cup the last decade (NJ and the Wings) than it would seem that it helps to have a lot of your own drafts on your team, and focus on scouting rather than trading. But there is no reason this strategy must work (Montreal and Edmonton).

You CAN follow the Anaheim model, but it hasn’t won a second cup yet.

by jpkoning on Feb 3, 2010 5:22 PM EST reply actions  

after more digging around, i’m going to call BS on this whole draft theory. ok, maybe not BS. but it’s not as cut and dry as you’re implying.

as per my post above, there doesn’t seem to be a strong correlation between drafting and cup success post-lockout. this link shows the team salary for selected years b/w 92/93 and the lockout:

http://www.hockeyzoneplus.com/$maseq_e.htm

i obviously can’t vouch for the validity of the data, but if it’s accurate, it’s pretty clear: pre-lockout (and salary cap), the team with the fattest payroll generally won, or was at least more competitive. the data is somewhat incomplete, but when you add up the salaries for the years they’ve listed here, this is what you get:

NY Rangers 390
Detroit 384.5
Dallas (Minn.) 337.5
Philadelphia 327.5
Colorado (Que.) 313.4
St.Louis 306.6
Toronto 297
Washington 264.5
Los Angeles 258.8
New Jersey 256.3

this has piqued my interest and i’ll probably seek out more thorough data to complete this analysis, but i think the correlation between team salary and success is pretty obvious, and more direct than the graphs you’ve shown above. is it coincidence that detroit had the highest payroll in the league in 1998 when it won it’s second cup in a row? i doubt it. that’s not to take away from the fact that they had a lot of homegrown talent on their roster, but is it really important where the talent was discovered, or whether you can afford to pay for it?

new jersey seems to be a bit of an outlier – although they were in the top 10 for team salaries, they were never near the top of the league, not even in the top 5. i really don’t know what kind of voodoo sh8t lamirello has going on in jersey, but it’s working.

interestingly, despite the leafs reputation for simply trying to ‘buy’ a team during the 90s, they were clearly not the most guilty team of the era. the rangers were ridiculous (which i’m sure we all remember), but detroit, colorado, philly and dallas weren’t cheap either. using the years shown, the wings averaged b/w $10M-$18M more per year than the leafs. as a leaf fan, this actually aggravates me a bit – why weren’t they forking out even bigger $$$???

and i hate to say it, but these numbers certainly show that ottawa was having a lot of ‘success’, despite being near the bottom of the league in salary. the cup final in 03/04 was interesting as well… both tampa and calgary were below the league average in salary that year.

anyway, solid post, thanks for getting me thinking about this stuff…

Yesterday is dead, but not my memory.

by daoust on Feb 3, 2010 11:15 PM EST up reply actions  

Maybe a few more years of post-lock out data will shed some light on the issue.

As for pre-lockout, I agree with you that money is a major determining variable. it would be interesting to see if you could somehow correct for money (remove it from the equation), and find out if draft-focused teams beat out trade focused teams.

by jpkoning on Feb 5, 2010 2:28 PM EST up reply actions  

This is solid, thanks.

by HugoAgogo on Feb 4, 2010 6:04 AM EST reply actions  

Interesting...

It would take some time I don’t presently have, but I wonder, is there a correlation between the ratio of picks still on a team-to-overall picks in the league, and that team’s success? To use the most painful personal example – the Islanders drafts from 1989-2005 were of two varieites: cover-your-eyes awful (Chyzowski? Scissons? Rupp? Mezei? Ye gods) or good and then sent away too soon (Chara, Bertuzzi, Luongo, Palffy, Connolly, McCabe). Even in the OK range, there’s Eric Brewer and Raffi Torres and JP Dumont on the list.

The average is roughly 50% – 12.5 on team versus a shade over 25 in the league overall. A lot would affect the ratio – losing your own players to free agency or signing a lot of other teams’ free agents would lower it. My initial guess is that, the Isles notwithstanding (and their ratio is 12/29: thanks Mike!), other teams profit by bringing in pieces through trades or signings that help them. (The Devils are at 18/34 by this measure, a bit above average; the Wings are 16/24, a huge number.)

I’ll go over the list in some detail and post the raw numbers tonight or tomorrow.

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by mikb on Feb 4, 2010 4:35 PM EST reply actions  

I had to laugh, this article is pretty ill-timed.

Lou builds his team through the draft, carefully grooming and nurturing his players in the farm system, and finally debuting them in the NHL when they are ready. And he keeps them. For a long time. Plotting headline grabbing trades doesn’t seem to be part of his toolbox.

Obviously they are if he thinks it will make his team better (which, it has, tonight, given the junk he gave away in Bergfors, Cormier, and the 1st).

The truth of the matter is that there are all kinds of ways to build winning teams, the draft being one of many avenues. And the road to the Cup is so soaked in luck, year after year after year, that it is ludicrous to measure success in Cups.

by R O on Feb 5, 2010 12:11 AM EST reply actions   1 recs

Yeah, this article is the first thing I thought of when I heard the Devils had traded for Kovalchuk. It’s fairly ironic, considering.

Of particular note is that he both made a headline grabbing trade and traded away his 1st draft pick.

by Avalain on Feb 5, 2010 10:41 AM EST up reply actions  

too funny, just goes to show that history doesnt write the future

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by Matt_Roberts on Feb 5, 2010 1:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Whoops. Just when you think you see a pattern.

Shoulda called it “The Devils-Thrashers trade: Why Lou Lamoriello Probably Thinks that His Team Won’t Lose”.

by jpkoning on Feb 5, 2010 2:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Maybe a better way to measure success would be some sort of numerical combination of:
1. Winning the cup
2. Making it to the finals
3. Making it to the playoffs
4. Rank in the regular season

You’d be able to capture the success of a team like Ottawa that way, since they made the playoffs for a decade, but never won the whole thing.

by jpkoning on Feb 5, 2010 2:34 PM EST up reply actions  

A good post, lots to read here and consider. While Lou likes to develop players, as mentioned in the article he still know’s when to make a trade. I think picking up Kovalchuk was a good idea, NJ needed a sniper to compliment their team.

Using NJ as an example of a model of success is tough though, considering they managed to draft the best goaltender in the league, who has played consistently for the past 15 years…. it is hard not to be succesful when you have a franchise goalie on your team for that long.

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by HowToHockey.com on Feb 13, 2010 5:29 PM EST reply actions  

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