2007-2010 5v5 Tough Matchup Leaders
by Hawerchuk on Feb 3, 2010 9:00 AM EST
6 comments
I just updated the 2007-08 and 2008-09 Quality of Competition rankings on behindthenet.ca, and I wanted to see what three years worth of combined statistics tell us about tough matchups. The top 25 in Corsi-based Quality of Competition are shown below - I only included players who played regularly each season, and finished in the top 150 in the league overall in QoC:
| Player | Corsi QoC | Off FO % | Corsi Rel |
| R. Niedermayer | 1.62 | 42.9 | -16.4 |
| Pahlsson | 1.57 | 40.3 | -13.1 |
| Mitchell | 1.49 | 41.1 | -3.3 |
| Seabrook | 1.43 | 52.3 | -0.5 |
| Hejda | 1.42 | 42.5 | -11.2 |
| Keith | 1.40 | 52.0 | 3.3 |
| Lidstrom | 1.37 | 53.4 | 7.0 |
| Volchenkov | 1.33 | 47.9 | -6.4 |
| Phillips | 1.32 | 47.5 | -4.7 |
| Kesler | 1.30 | 42.0 | 8.3 |
| M. Koivu | 1.26 | 48.6 | 8.9 |
| Pandolfo | 1.18 | 47.4 | -16.9 |
| Pominville | 1.17 | 50.2 | 1.7 |
| Hecht | 1.15 | 48.4 | 1.1 |
| Madden | 1.13 | 43.7 | -16.2 |
| Rafalski | 1.10 | 54.1 | 5.0 |
| Hamhuis | 1.09 | 45.0 | -2.0 |
| Handzus | 1.09 | 44.7 | -12.2 |
| S. Niedermayer | 1.08 | 48.4 | 4.5 |
| McClement | 1.07 | 38.1 | -10.4 |
| Hanzal | 1.05 | 43.6 | 5.4 |
| Zetterberg | 1.05 | 52.5 | 12.8 |
| Kobasew | 1.05 | 46.4 | -12.5 |
| Chara | 1.04 | 48.1 | 8.0 |
| Tallinder | 1.03 | 48.7 | -2.8 |
A lot of familiar names here: defensive forwards who played together like Madden/Pandolfo and Niedermayer/Pahlsson/Moen; first defensive pairings like Lidstrom/Rafalski, Keith/Seabrook and Phillips/Volchenkov; and top defensive players like Willie Mitchell, Jan Hejda and Mikko Koivu. For the most part, these are also guys who started out in their defensive zone a lot, and suffered on their Corsi shot totals as a result.
One guy who stands out is Ryan Kesler - he started in his own zone as often as anyone else on this list, and the Canucks still managed to generate a much better shot differential when he was on the ice than when he was off. This is also a testament to the defensive skills of Sami Salo, Alex Burrows and Willie Mitchell, who've frequently been Kesler's linemates in these tough situations. Vancouver might not have the most famous shutdown unit in the league, but they certainly have one of the best.
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Terrific stuff Gabe, thanks. The only guy on that list that seems out of place to me is Kobasew, I guess I’ve been underrating the guy.
And just for the helluvit … I cut and paste the data from 07/08 and from 08/09, just for players who skated in over 40 games. And all this qualcomp and qualteam stuff looks surprisingly reliable year to year.
We all know that there is some noise in here, plus some coaches don’t match lines much, some guys go more by tired legs or by zone … these metrics won’t catch much of that. And we know that guys change roles all the time, especially if they change teams or the coach changes.
Yet if you churn out a scatterplot of QUALCOMP or the relative corsi version, one year vs the other year … the pattern can’t be missed. In terms of pearson correlation r=.55 or thereabouts for both measures.
The new qualteam measure is an improvement, r is over 0.6. Surprisingly the old qualteam measure looks pretty reliable too, just a bit behind at r=.5. Not a lot of difference to look at them. I was always a bit suspicious about the amount of noise in the old qualteam, perhaps wrongly.
Surprising how much the roles shifted in San Jose from 07/08 to 08/09. Looks like a complete change in philosophy there from Wilson to MacLellan.
Similar with ANA, though there the GM traded way two thirds of the checking line. Moen and Pahlsson are players too. Gotta feel for Carlyle, that’s a coach that really loves to roll with an old school checking line. I’m guessing the GM doesn’t feel the same way.
Some old guys really fell off the ledge too, or more correctly their coaches lost faith in them for the tough minutes gig. Holik fell through the floor even more than Draper/Maltby. Grier too, I thought he was done, seems to be finding traction in BUF though, glad to see it.
Oops, I didn’t even notice that Moen dropped off the list – he’s not far down, but he’s not getting the same usage (aside from D-zone draws) in Montreal. Pahlsson’s QoC dropped in Columbus, but he’s getting a ridiculous 63% D-zone draws.
Hecht is an interesting guy. He didn’t make the German Olympic team because Krupp said his NHL role was too marginal. News reports said Hecht was having a crummy offensive season – one shift a game on the PP will make that happen. But the guy has been #1 or #2 every year in QoC for Buffalo. It can’t be a fluke…
Those numbers for Kesler are amazing.
I look at that list and see a guy like Jay Pandolfo. Dude’s been getting tough assignments for years now, but he seems to just get smoked by them. It kinda makes me wonder why coaches think he’s a good fit for that role and why they keep giving it to him.
Sutter, towards the end of his tenure, started backing off on making Pando the primary stopper of superstars, and even Lemaire has gone strength against strength a lot this season (i.e. – Parise or Zajac against opposition first lines), but still, Pando still gets used quite a bit in tough icetime situations. I wonder what coaches see that the numbers don’t.
by sunnymehta.com on Feb 3, 2010 1:22 PM EST up reply actions
to clarify...
I guess I’m kind of curious if we gave every player in the league the same assignments that Pandolfo had over the past three seasons, what their Corsi numbers would look like and how Pando fared relative to average.
by sunnymehta.com on Feb 3, 2010 1:53 PM EST up reply actions
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