I think we can agree that this is luck...
by Hawerchuk on May 11, 2010 9:00 AM EDT
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Here are the league leaders in hitting posts and crossbars in 2009-10 - I have shootout data in here, which accounts for some totals not matching up. Just 1.4% of all shots hit the iron (according to NHL.com) - Steven Stamkos somehow hit the post 16 times and could have set some real records with just average luck:
| Player | Bad Luck | Shoot% | w/ Posts | Shots | Goals | Posts |
| STEVENSTAMKOS | 3.8 | 12.7 | 16.4 | 426 | 54 | 16 |
| MIKEFISHER | 4.0 | 9.0 | 13.0 | 300 | 27 | 12 |
| ANZEKOPITAR | 3.2 | 11.1 | 14.2 | 379 | 42 | 12 |
| ANTTIMIETTINEN | 4.3 | 8.7 | 13.0 | 254 | 22 | 11 |
| JOHNTAVARES | 3.9 | 9.8 | 13.7 | 256 | 25 | 10 |
| JOEPAVELSKI | 3.2 | 8.8 | 12.0 | 317 | 28 | 10 |
| OLLIJOKINEN | 2.9 | 5.9 | 8.8 | 339 | 20 | 10 |
| COREYPERRY | 2.6 | 7.6 | 10.2 | 381 | 29 | 10 |
| BRADRICHARDS | 2.3 | 6.4 | 8.7 | 438 | 28 | 10 |
| RAYWHITNEY | 3.5 | 8.1 | 11.6 | 258 | 21 | 9 |
| LEESTEMPNIAK | 3.0 | 10.1 | 13.1 | 297 | 30 | 9 |
| JAMIELANGENBRUNNER | 2.9 | 6.8 | 9.8 | 307 | 21 | 9 |
| EVGENIMALKIN | 2.4 | 7.6 | 10.1 | 368 | 28 | 9 |
| PATRICKKANE | 2.4 | 8.9 | 11.3 | 381 | 34 | 9 |
| CORYSTILLMAN | 3.9 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 204 | 17 | 8 |
| STEPHENWEISS | 3.1 | 11.5 | 14.6 | 260 | 30 | 8 |
| MARKSTREIT | 3.0 | 4.1 | 7.0 | 271 | 11 | 8 |
| JAMESNEAL | 2.9 | 9.3 | 12.1 | 280 | 26 | 8 |
| MASONRAYMOND | 2.8 | 8.8 | 11.7 | 283 | 25 | 8 |
| DUSTINBYFUGLIEN | 2.7 | 5.8 | 8.5 | 293 | 17 | 8 |
| ALEXOVECHKIN | 1.5 | 9.7 | 11.2 | 537 | 52 | 8 |
Here are the 19 unluckiest shooters in the league - Andy Greene must be kicking himself for hitting the post as often as he scored:
| Player | Bad Luck | Shoot% | w/ Posts | Shots | Goals | Posts |
| DAVIDBOOTH | 4.4 | 6.7 | 11.1 | 135 | 9 | 6 |
| ANDYGREENE | 4.3 | 4.3 | 8.7 | 138 | 6 | 6 |
| ANTTIMIETTINEN | 4.3 | 8.7 | 13.0 | 254 | 22 | 11 |
| RYANSHANNON | 4.2 | 4.2 | 8.4 | 143 | 6 | 6 |
| MIKEFISHER | 4.0 | 9.0 | 13.0 | 300 | 27 | 12 |
| CORYSTILLMAN | 3.9 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 204 | 17 | 8 |
| DAINIUSZUBRUS | 3.9 | 9.8 | 13.7 | 102 | 10 | 4 |
| JOHNTAVARES | 3.9 | 9.8 | 13.7 | 256 | 25 | 10 |
| STEVENSTAMKOS | 3.8 | 12.7 | 16.4 | 426 | 54 | 16 |
| ENVERLISIN | 3.7 | 4.4 | 8.1 | 135 | 6 | 5 |
| ALEXTANGUAY | 3.6 | 7.2 | 10.9 | 138 | 10 | 5 |
| TODDMARCHANT | 3.6 | 8.0 | 11.6 | 112 | 9 | 4 |
| CHRISPHILLIPS | 3.5 | 7.0 | 10.5 | 114 | 8 | 4 |
| RAYWHITNEY | 3.5 | 8.1 | 11.6 | 258 | 21 | 9 |
| BRENTBURNS | 3.3 | 2.0 | 5.2 | 153 | 3 | 5 |
| VYACHESLAVKOZLOV | 3.2 | 7.8 | 11.0 | 154 | 12 | 5 |
| DERICKBRASSARD | 3.2 | 5.8 | 9.0 | 156 | 9 | 5 |
| ANZEKOPITAR | 3.2 | 11.1 | 14.2 | 379 | 42 | 12 |
| JOEPAVELSKI | 3.2 | 8.8 | 12.0 | 317 | 28 | 10 |
At the other end, we've got players who didn't hit any posts:
| Player | Bad Luck | Shoot% | w/ Posts | Shots | Goals | Posts |
| RENEBOURQUE | 0 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 304 | 28 | 0 |
| ANDYMCDONALD | 0 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 264 | 28 | 0 |
| NICKLASBERGFORS | 0 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 258 | 20 | 0 |
| ZACHBOGOSIAN | 0 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 237 | 10 | 0 |
| BRANDONSUTTER | 0 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 217 | 21 | 0 |
| KURTISFOSTER | 0 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 215 | 8 | 0 |
| JAYBOUWMEESTER | 0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 202 | 3 | 0 |
| JOELWARD | 0 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 201 | 13 | 0 |
| JASONCHIMERA | 0 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 200 | 15 | 0 |
| MILANHEJDUK | 0 | 13.8 | 13.8 | 196 | 27 | 0 |
| BRADRICHARDSON | 0 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 196 | 10 | 0 |
| MARKRECCHI | 0 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 195 | 19 | 0 |
| TOMASHOLMSTROM | 0 | 13.2 | 13.2 | 190 | 25 | 0 |
| T.J.GALIARDI | 0 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 186 | 15 | 0 |
| MIKHAILGRABOVSKI | 0 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 173 | 10 | 0 |
You can see where players hit posts from:
The true peak is around 20 feet - there are very few shots from closer than five feet, so seven posts and one crossbar skew the results.
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I dunno about calling Stamkos “a guy who could’ve set some real records with average luck” — after all, he shot 17.17% all year, and we’ve been told repeatedly such high shooting percentage is mostly luck, and unsustainable. Seems to me he was very fortunate by that standard. (Actually, looking at your stats for him, they seem a bit off. On nhl.com he had 51 goals and 297 shots, not 54/426 — is there a transcription error maybe?)
He usually uses Shots + Missed Shots for these kind of things, so my assumption is that’s why it’s 426. I have no idea where the three extra goals came from, though.
Gabe: I’m amiable to the idea of using Shots + Misses as a basis for SH%/SV%, but can you do a piece on what kind of norms we should expect using that metric? Speaking for myself, I know my internal clock is geared towards shots-only SH% so I have a general feeling for what’s average and what’s unsustainable n that regard. I don’t have the same experience with ‘Fenwick’ SH% to have that inkling.
it felt like Matt Duchene hit the posts about a hundred times this year. looks like the actual number was slightly lower
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by David Driscoll-Carignan on May 11, 2010 10:55 AM EDT reply actions
That’s what I was thinking. I wonder how those numbers would look in regards to Duchene if split first half/second half.
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You’re going to have to take that up with your official scorer – he has Duchene hitting two posts all season
We will have to take it up with the official scorer. That’s impossible.
I think he hit 2 posts in a single game in the early part of the season, and I can distinctly recall about 5 hitting the post.
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Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on May 12, 2010 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions
As it should
But there’s no possible way Duchene hit the post only 2 times. I wonder if the Avs even keep track of that, or if his 2 posts come from the road.
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Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on May 12, 2010 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions
I have to believe that the Avs don’t keep track of posts. I believe rsm is right above… it’s a fun thing to look at, but certain arena’s probably have quite a bit of bias…
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Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on May 12, 2010 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I think we can agree that this is luck…
Waddya mean, luck? The posts are part of every goalie’s equipment!
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by Bruce McCurdy on May 11, 2010 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Everyone appears to have picked up a few extra goals – Stamkos gained five, Fisher gained two, Miettinen gained two, Kopitar gained eight. What’s up with this, Gabe?
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by Jonathan Willis on May 11, 2010 3:02 PM EDT reply actions
This is good stuff
Reminds me of one of the early books from Stats Inc. A book full of this, with nice graphics, and you’d have a best-seller.
As I recall, they did a piece on Gregg Jefferies and how many of his line drives were outs instead of base hits. This is similar, in a way.
Do you have this list from last year? Curious if it has predictive value.
Bourque never rang any off the iron and out all year, wow. I remember checking these a couple of years ago, Rene’s last season in Chicago, and he was up there with he league leaders (Jagr, Staal and Iginla IIRC). Dude had nearly as many posts as goals.
I don’t think Bourque was due some puck luck, I don’t beleive that dice have memory, but it’s still nice to see things even out.
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