FIFA World Cup: Expected Goals in games thus far

by Hawerchuk on Jun 12, 2010 8:48 PM EDT Comment 0 comments

JOHANNESBURG, SOUTH AFRICA - JUNE 12: Gabriel Heinze of Argentina celebrates as he scores the opening goal during the 2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa Group B match between Argentina and Nigeria at Ellis Park Stadium on June 12, 2010 in Johannesburg, South Africa. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)

Streeter Lecka - Getty Images

2 months ago: JOHANNESBURG, SOUTH AFRICA - JUNE 12: Gabriel Heinze of Argentina celebrates as he scores the opening goal during the 2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa Group B match between Argentina and Nigeria at Ellis Park Stadium on June 12, 2010 in Johannesburg, South Africa. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)

View full size photo »

If we take the shots taken in the games so far and add up the expected shooting percentage based on their locations, we can come up with an estimate of how many goals each team should have scored.

Here's the chart for the first five games:

Home	Shots	Goals	Exp Goals	Away	Shots	Goals	Exp Goals
South Africa	10	1	0.56	Mexico	16	1	1.36
Uruguay	7	0	0.25	France	20	0	1.19
Argentina	20	1	1.58	Nigeria	12	0	0.38
South Korea	17	2	1.46	Greece	6	0	0.72
England	18	1	1.44	United States	12	1	0.77

No surprises there - the teams that won got much better shots, and the three teams that tied despite having better control of the play should have won...but didn't.

Note that this is a very coarse metric because relatively few shots are taken in a game. I have much better data relating to field position that I'll discuss in the next couple of days.

0 recs | Comment 0 comments |