Soccer: Value of Corner and Goal Kicks

by Hawerchuk on Jun 23, 2010 9:00 AM EDT Comment 6 comments

SANDY, UT - MARCH 31: Carli Lloyd #10 of the United States kicks a corner against Mexico during the international friendly match between the United States and Mexico at Rio Tinto Stadium on March 31, 2010 in Sandy, Utah. (Photo by Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images)

Jonathan Ferrey - Getty Images

5 months ago: SANDY, UT - MARCH 31: Carli Lloyd #10 of the United States kicks a corner against Mexico during the international friendly match between the United States and Mexico at Rio Tinto Stadium on March 31, 2010 in Sandy, Utah. (Photo by Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images)

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How much are corner kicks and goal kicks worth to a team over the course of a season? In the English Premier League, there are approximately 30 such plays per game between both teams:

	Per Game	Pct
Corners	9.90	34
Goal Kicks	19.22	66

We can determine the value of each event by looking at the number of shots taken by each team after the kick. For corner kicks, we see a significant offensive boost for more than 10 seconds - it also takes the defending team at least 13 seconds to get down the field and get a shot on goal:

Ultimately, the value of a corner kick is approximately 0.05 shots, or less than 1-200th of a goal. The cumulative shot differential keeps going up well beyond the 20-second mark - this happens because the team that gets a corner kick is generally better than the team that gave it up, not because there's some lingering effect relating to the corner kick.

The instantaneous shot rate is also instructive:

Let's compare this to a goal kick:

Clearly a goal kick is a very low-outcome event compared to a corner kick, resulting in six times fewer shots between the two teams over the next ten seconds. There is, however, a slight offensive advantage for the kicking team from five-to-fifteen seconds after the kick:

Ultimately, the difference between a corner kick and a goal kick is approximately 0.06 shots, 1-200th of a goal, or 0.008 points in the EPL standings. Even if you had 200 more corner kicks than your opponents over the course of a single season - which would be incredibly unlikely - it would barely influence your overall point totals.

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Thanks

I’d always wondered about corner kicks, since the commentary guys make such a big deal about it but I rarely see a goal directly resulting.

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by red army line on Jun 23, 2010 9:02 AM EDT reply actions

I don’t know about that. In this World Cup, plenty of goals were scored from corner kicks, the latest being the winning goal for Holland against Brazil. In the 2006 final, Italy equalized 1-1 from a corner kick against France, and in the 1998 final, Zidane scored his two goals from corner kicks.

Corners may result in goals only once in 20 or 50 times, but this is such a low scoring game that corners are indeed a a very dangerous situation for the defending team.

by Marc-André Paiement on Jul 2, 2010 8:35 PM EDT up reply actions

This shows us how many shots come from a goal kick or corner kick, but how many goals come directly after one or the other? Obviously the team needs a shot to score, but their could be a higher percentage of shots that go in directly after a corner kick, compared to a shot on an average play.

by cbernardin on Jun 23, 2010 1:42 PM EDT reply actions

valid question. I’ll check that out. I was mostly looking for the length of the offensive boost.

by Hawerchuk on Jun 23, 2010 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions

I would expect that the shots you get after a corner are more dangerous than an average shot. A corner being worth 1/200th of a goal just seems too low.

by et_pitt on Jul 7, 2010 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Shots after corners are going to be likely to come from much closer to the net than standard shots. Most often I’m thinking the shooter is standing within a few yards of goal, whereas I’d imagine it is relatively unusual to be shooting from so close otherwise in the flow of a game.

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by Wan Ihite on Jul 8, 2010 9:57 PM EDT up reply actions