Team Corsi +/- vs Other Divisions since the Lockout

by Hawerchuk on Jun 9, 2010 1:00 PM EDT Comment 9 comments

These charts show team shot +/-, even-strength, with the score tied against teams in every division but their own. First, the East:

team	shot delta	team	shot delta	team	shot delta
nj	223	bos	134	atl	-398
nyi	-281	buf	-60	car	34
nyr	344	mon	-266	tb	-294
phi	7	ott	200	fla	-192
pit	-174	tor	65	was	110

And the west:

team	shot delta	team	shot delta	team	shot delta
chi	430	cgy	-52	ana	148
cls	-32	col	-471	dal	46
det	1018	edm	-525	la	21
nsh	91	min	-419	pho	-150
stl	-55	van	-26	sj	524

Now keep in mind that we've got an unbalanced schedule, so the eastern teams tend to play weaker teams overall, while the NW, in particular, plays an awful lot of games against the three best teams in the league.

What's amazing, too, is that Columbus is actually not a bad team - but they've played so many games against Nashville and Detroit and then later against Chicago that they don't look very good. If any team should ask for a transfer to the eastern conference, well, it's the western conference's easternmost team.

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Cool. Would be interesting to see in-division numbers as well, for context.

I’m always suspicious when I see NYR as an outlier, as their home ice stats guys are notoriously terrible. I note they’re leading the east by this category, I wonder how they would rank if just road games were accounted for. Would be interested to see home/road splits generally, as the raw numbers on a league-wide basis might help quantify home-ice advantage in broad terms.

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by Bruce McCurdy on Jun 9, 2010 1:17 PM EDT reply actions

Interpreting significance

Just wondering what level of difference is probably appropriate for significance. I understand there are probably multiple factors at work here, specifically time spent at even strength and tied, but as a ballpark, do you have an idea what sort of difference in shots would be significant? There probably isn’t a real significant difference between Washington and Boston, but is there likely a difference between Boston and Toronto? My guess is that’s big enough.

Speaking of Toronto … wow. 6th in the East by this measure (if I counted right). 2nd last in the NHL by standings.

by Bourque77 on Jun 9, 2010 2:07 PM EDT reply actions

I’d say the difference between Boston and Toronto, on the whole, isn’t particularly significant. My rough math has three season of 50 non-division games and two season of 58 non-division games (I could have messed up my ratio there.) So, you’re essentially looking at Boston having a 0.26 Corsi +/- advantage (134 – 65 = 69 / 266 = .26) over Toronto on a per game basis, drill down to just shots (my Corsi spreadsheet for EDM this year shows .54 of all Corsi events being shots, so let’s use that) and you’re looking at a 0.14 per game shot differential advantage for Boston. Assume they both have a PDO of 100, SH% of 8% and SV% of .920 (ahahaha, poor Toronto) — that shot advantage becomes a 0.011 goal differential advantage per game (0.14 * 8% = 0.011).

And I guarantee there are at least three substantial (and statistically significant!) logic/math mistakes in that block of text. Have fun!

by Quain on Jun 9, 2010 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Completely off topic

But is there any analysis that measures the standard deviation of player and team performances? Two goalies may have the same high save percentage, but I may prefer one that doesn’t get pulled so often even though I’m not getting as many shutouts.

by SJKel on Jun 9, 2010 5:15 PM EDT reply actions

Jonathan Willis at Hockey or Die did this for goalies. Haven’t seen anything quite like that for anything else.
http://blogs.thescore.com/nhl/2010/03/09/how-consistent-are-nhl-goalies/

by MattM on Jun 9, 2010 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Thanks. Not sure one season contains enough data, however.

by SJKel on Jun 10, 2010 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Completely off topic part 2

I was looking at photos for this game to use in my blog post this morning. weird coincidence.

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by Jibblescribbits on Jun 9, 2010 5:24 PM EDT reply actions

Didnt...

Hitchcock get fired immediately after the game in the photo too? I went to that game and for the first period it was all Blue Jackets…and than nothing…..than the axe dropped on ol’ Kenny….

by kdringg on Jun 9, 2010 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions