More photos » Gene J. Puskar - AP

about 1 year ago: Pittsburgh Penguins' Sidney Crosby tries to get a shot past Washington Capitals goalie Simeon Varlamov of Russia in the first period of Game 4 of an NHL hockey second-round playoff game, in Pittsburgh on Friday, May 8, 2009. Crosby's rebound was put in by teammate Bill Guerin for a goal. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

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First things first: do not call me a Crosby-hater.  That's the last thing in the world that I am.  Here's my post-Olympic reaction, and here's where I advocated for him as Rookie of the Year.

Now, apparently there are some Pittsburgh fans out there who think Crosby is going to score 50 goals again this season.  Despite being a gifted playmaker, he has no track record of scoring like that.  Let's look as his three-year weighted projection:

Now it's entirely possible that he stepped up his game and improved his scoring touch last season - he did take a lot more shots than in the past.  I found the 29 most-comparable seasons to Crosby's 2009-10 over the last 40 years.  Here's how those players did the next season, per 82 games:

There were a lot more pure goalscorers in this group than playmakers, so both their goals and assists dropped in the year following their big year.  They also played, on average, four fewer games in that next season (hence Crosby's projection per 77 games - if he plays that much, I doubt he'll have as few as 54 assists.)  What's clear is that regardless of which projection method we follow, we expect Crosby to score around 40 goals next season.  Remember - when a player has a big season, particularly one that's out of line with what he's done before, it's because everything broke right for him.  In his next season, we shouldn't expect everything to go his way, and so he's unlikely to put up the same big numbers.

Of course, what we've got here is a mean projection.  20% of Crosby's comparables scored 50+ goals the following season, while half scored less than 40, which should give you an idea of the range of possible outcomes.  Sidney Crosby is an amazing player, but you shouldn't put your money on him repeating his 50 goal season.

More photos » Chris Carlson - AP

4 months ago: New York Yankees' Mark Teixeira scores over Los Angeles Angels catcher Bobby Wilson on a hit by Robinson Cano during the third inning of a baseball game in Anaheim, Calif., Friday, April 23, 2010. Wilson was carried off the field after the play. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)

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To my eye, Teixeira intentionally slid past the plate so he could hit Wilson.  That deserves an ejection, but of course baseball doesn't work that way.

More photos » Darryl Dyck - AP

4 months ago: Vancouver Canucks' Henrik Sedin, left, of Sweden, and Alex Burrows celebrate a goal by Daniel Sedin, not pictured, during the third period of an NHL hockey game in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada on Saturday, April 10, 2010. Henrik Sedin's assist on the goal set a new team record for points in a season. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Darryl Dyck)

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I'm looking at you, Henrik Sedin.  If we look at 115 players who put up roughly similar point totals over the last 40 years, we can see that it's not likely to be 112 again:

Remember - players who do amazing things in one season typically do them because everything broke right for them: only 1-in-5 of our similar group maintained or exceeded his scoring totals the following season.  Of course, that group of players has a very different profile from a playmaker like Henrik Sedin. What if we look at other playmakers?  Well, we only end up with 18 player-seasons, from a dozen players:

That drop-off doesn't look so harsh - but these players took 50% more shots than Henrik Sedin and were actually underperforming in the shooting department, unlike Henrik, who was vastly overperforming his career 13.1 shooting percentage.  If we go back through NHL history, there are very few players who had a season like he just did: Craig Janney and Adam Oates are obvious comps, and Doug Gilmour and a late-model Wayne Gretzky also accomplished similar feats.  So when we've got no one to compare him to, what do we do?  3-2-1 projections...

All this is is an average of Sedin's last three seasons, weighted 3-2-1.  And since he's turning 30, the projection should probably be slightly more pessimistic.  If you're picking Henrik Sedin in a hockey pool, reasonable expectations put him a shade above 90 points.  It's possible that he learned to shoot and became a more efficient playmaker at age 29...But it's highly unlikely.

Darryl Dyck - AP

4 months ago: Vancouver Canucks' Henrik Sedin, left to right, Kevin Bieksa, Christian Ehrhoff, of Germany, Alex Burrows and Daniel Sedin, of Sweden, celebrate Daniel Sedin's third goal of the game against the Calgary Flames during the third period of an NHL hockey game in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada on Saturday, April 10, 2010. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Darryl Dyck)

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More photos » DARRYL DYCK - AP

5 months ago: Calgary Flames' Vesa Toskala, of Finland, is hit by the puck during second period NHL action against the Vancouver Canucks in Vancouver, B.C., on Sunday March 14, 2010. Toskala came into the game after Miikka Kiprusoff, of Finland, was pulled from the game after the first period. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press,Darryl Dyck)

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Yesterday's survey results are in, and the Leafs' mean projection is 82.6 points.  That's not an unsubstantial improvement - Toronto finished with 74 points this year, so our wise crowds expect a four-win gain.  Let's put that in a table:

If we ignore Toronto's brutal 13-game streak to start the season - and well we should - they were on a 79-point pace.  Now the consensus is that they're an 82-83-point team?!  That doesn't sound like much of an improvement.  Well, I wrote about this last year.  Essentially, teams that get off to very bad starts are actually a lot better than they appear.  But that poor play is already banked in everyone's mind.  So future expectations are based on the poor full-season record instead of the team's apparent true talent level.  If Toronto was going to improve on their 79-point pace by nine points, they'd be on the playoff bubble; instead people think they're going to finish 12th or 13th.

Strange, isn't it?  Toronto had a bad 13 games while Phil Kessel was hurt and Vesa Toskala was destroying his career, and the outcome is that the Leafs face lower expectations a season later.

More photos » Darren Calabrese - AP

5 months ago: Toronto Maple Leafs Phil Kessel, center, and Tyler Bozak, right, celebrate Kessel's goal during the second period of an NHL hockey game in Toronto on Saturday, March 20, 2010. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Darren Calabrese)

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Because inquiring minds want to know...And I'd also like to put a price tag on the 2011 draft pick the Bruins are getting.