More photos » Gene J. Puskar - AP

about 1 year ago: Pittsburgh Penguins' Sidney Crosby tries to get a shot past Washington Capitals goalie Simeon Varlamov of Russia in the first period of Game 4 of an NHL hockey second-round playoff game, in Pittsburgh on Friday, May 8, 2009. Crosby's rebound was put in by teammate Bill Guerin for a goal. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

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First things first: do not call me a Crosby-hater.  That's the last thing in the world that I am.  Here's my post-Olympic reaction, and here's where I advocated for him as Rookie of the Year.

Now, apparently there are some Pittsburgh fans out there who think Crosby is going to score 50 goals again this season.  Despite being a gifted playmaker, he has no track record of scoring like that.  Let's look as his three-year weighted projection:

Now it's entirely possible that he stepped up his game and improved his scoring touch last season - he did take a lot more shots than in the past.  I found the 29 most-comparable seasons to Crosby's 2009-10 over the last 40 years.  Here's how those players did the next season, per 82 games:

There were a lot more pure goalscorers in this group than playmakers, so both their goals and assists dropped in the year following their big year.  They also played, on average, four fewer games in that next season (hence Crosby's projection per 77 games - if he plays that much, I doubt he'll have as few as 54 assists.)  What's clear is that regardless of which projection method we follow, we expect Crosby to score around 40 goals next season.  Remember - when a player has a big season, particularly one that's out of line with what he's done before, it's because everything broke right for him.  In his next season, we shouldn't expect everything to go his way, and so he's unlikely to put up the same big numbers.

Of course, what we've got here is a mean projection.  20% of Crosby's comparables scored 50+ goals the following season, while half scored less than 40, which should give you an idea of the range of possible outcomes.  Sidney Crosby is an amazing player, but you shouldn't put your money on him repeating his 50 goal season.

More photos » Chris Carlson - AP

4 months ago: New York Yankees' Mark Teixeira scores over Los Angeles Angels catcher Bobby Wilson on a hit by Robinson Cano during the third inning of a baseball game in Anaheim, Calif., Friday, April 23, 2010. Wilson was carried off the field after the play. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)

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To my eye, Teixeira intentionally slid past the plate so he could hit Wilson.  That deserves an ejection, but of course baseball doesn't work that way.

More photos » Darryl Dyck - AP

4 months ago: Vancouver Canucks' Henrik Sedin, left, of Sweden, and Alex Burrows celebrate a goal by Daniel Sedin, not pictured, during the third period of an NHL hockey game in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada on Saturday, April 10, 2010. Henrik Sedin's assist on the goal set a new team record for points in a season. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Darryl Dyck)

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I'm looking at you, Henrik Sedin.  If we look at 115 players who put up roughly similar point totals over the last 40 years, we can see that it's not likely to be 112 again:

Remember - players who do amazing things in one season typically do them because everything broke right for them: only 1-in-5 of our similar group maintained or exceeded his scoring totals the following season.  Of course, that group of players has a very different profile from a playmaker like Henrik Sedin. What if we look at other playmakers?  Well, we only end up with 18 player-seasons, from a dozen players:

That drop-off doesn't look so harsh - but these players took 50% more shots than Henrik Sedin and were actually underperforming in the shooting department, unlike Henrik, who was vastly overperforming his career 13.1 shooting percentage.  If we go back through NHL history, there are very few players who had a season like he just did: Craig Janney and Adam Oates are obvious comps, and Doug Gilmour and a late-model Wayne Gretzky also accomplished similar feats.  So when we've got no one to compare him to, what do we do?  3-2-1 projections...

All this is is an average of Sedin's last three seasons, weighted 3-2-1.  And since he's turning 30, the projection should probably be slightly more pessimistic.  If you're picking Henrik Sedin in a hockey pool, reasonable expectations put him a shade above 90 points.  It's possible that he learned to shoot and became a more efficient playmaker at age 29...But it's highly unlikely.

Darryl Dyck - AP

4 months ago: Vancouver Canucks' Henrik Sedin, left to right, Kevin Bieksa, Christian Ehrhoff, of Germany, Alex Burrows and Daniel Sedin, of Sweden, celebrate Daniel Sedin's third goal of the game against the Calgary Flames during the third period of an NHL hockey game in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada on Saturday, April 10, 2010. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Darryl Dyck)

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More photos » DARRYL DYCK - AP

5 months ago: Calgary Flames' Vesa Toskala, of Finland, is hit by the puck during second period NHL action against the Vancouver Canucks in Vancouver, B.C., on Sunday March 14, 2010. Toskala came into the game after Miikka Kiprusoff, of Finland, was pulled from the game after the first period. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press,Darryl Dyck)

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Yesterday's survey results are in, and the Leafs' mean projection is 82.6 points.  That's not an unsubstantial improvement - Toronto finished with 74 points this year, so our wise crowds expect a four-win gain.  Let's put that in a table:

If we ignore Toronto's brutal 13-game streak to start the season - and well we should - they were on a 79-point pace.  Now the consensus is that they're an 82-83-point team?!  That doesn't sound like much of an improvement.  Well, I wrote about this last year.  Essentially, teams that get off to very bad starts are actually a lot better than they appear.  But that poor play is already banked in everyone's mind.  So future expectations are based on the poor full-season record instead of the team's apparent true talent level.  If Toronto was going to improve on their 79-point pace by nine points, they'd be on the playoff bubble; instead people think they're going to finish 12th or 13th.

Strange, isn't it?  Toronto had a bad 13 games while Phil Kessel was hurt and Vesa Toskala was destroying his career, and the outcome is that the Leafs face lower expectations a season later.

More photos » Darren Calabrese - AP

5 months ago: Toronto Maple Leafs Phil Kessel, center, and Tyler Bozak, right, celebrate Kessel's goal during the second period of an NHL hockey game in Toronto on Saturday, March 20, 2010. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Darren Calabrese)

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Because inquiring minds want to know...And I'd also like to put a price tag on the 2011 draft pick the Bruins are getting.

Matthew Manor - Getty Images

14 days ago: TORONTO ON - AUGUST 18: Jonathan Huberdeau #12 carries the puck over the wider blue line which was being tested by the NHL during an on-ice session at the 2010 NHL Research Development and Orientation Camp fueled by G Series on August 18 2010 in Toronto Canada. (Photo by Matthew Manor/Getty Images)

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Some of you may have seen my generic analysis from last year of shots for and against following a faceoff.  Derek Zone asked me to run the same for power-plays.  Here are the results - first, cumulative shot totals per faceoff:

Two things to note: 1) the slope of the line is higher for 5v4, which we'd naturally assume - it's just that much easier to get a shot on the PP; and 2) faceoffs at 5v5 are much more likely to result in a quick shot.  That's not surprising either - if you win a PP faceoff, you can control the puck and work it around looking for a better chance (plus with one fewer opponent, you're more likely to win control cleanly.)  But you wouldn't work the puck around at even-strength.  Here are the instantaneous shot counts:

If you win an offensive zone faceoff at 5v5, whatever advantage you gained is mostly gone after 10 seconds, and it's completely gone after 18 or so.  On the other hand, at 5v4, your opportunity rates never converge.  Odds are, if the defensive team wins a faceoff, they'll dump it down the ice.  You'll lose time going back to get the puck and they'll get a change, and those fresh legs will ultimately reduce your ability to get scoring opportunities.

Now what happens if, as the NHL's rulemakers have suggested, you get called for icing when you're on the PK?  If the defensive team ices the puck, they've probably reduced their expected future shots against by about 0.2 shots (you can read that off the first chart - say at 25 seconds). If they get called for icing, the play is short-circuited after about 5 or 6 seconds, and they've only reduced their expected shots against by 0.1 shots.  However, they're up for another defensive zone faceoff, which - given a 53.8% win% by the team with the man-advantage - leads to an average deficit of 0.1 shots for them.  So by calling icing, we've just cost the team that's a man down 0.2 shots per icing.

We don't have any data on how often the defending team ices the puck on the PK, but let's say they still choose to do it twice per penalty kill.  Then getting called for it costs them 0.4 shots per PP opportunity.  Overall, we're looking at a 20% increase in shots (and goals) by the team with the man-advantage, or roughly six goals per team per season.  (That's literally a 2% increase in offense.)  Teams might ice the puck more now, but obviously if there was a cost associated with it, they'd hang on to the puck a little longer or try to put the puck on net instead of just dumping it down the boards.  Whatever the outcome, it won't significantly boost league-wide offense.

More photos » Chris Carlson - AP

14 days ago: Colorado Rockies relief pitcher Huston Street, middle, celebrates after catcher Miguel Olivo, right, tags out Los Angeles Dodgers' Reed Johnson after he tried to score on a hit by Scott Podsednik to end the 10th inning of a baseball game in Los Angeles, Wednesday, Aug. 18, 2010. The Rockies won 3-2. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)

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Bottom of the 10th, 2 outs, Dodgers trailing 3-2.  Reed Johnson is on first and Scott Podsednik bloops a single to center.  Johnson is running on contact and the centerfielder is slow getting the ball back to the infield.  Dodgers 3B coach Larry Bowa sends Johnson home.  Here's what Larry Bowa and Joe Torre had to say:

Fowler made a perfect throw to Tulowitzki, and the Rockies' rifle-armed shortstop then fired a bullet to catcher Miguel Olivo, who was waiting for Johnson when he got to the plate. Olivo applied the easy tag on the sliding Johnson, ending the game.

"They made two good plays," Bowa said. "If he makes it, it's a good play. If he doesn't, it's a bad play. I take the blame for it. I don't think you guys [the media] have talked to me [about getting a runner thrown out] in three years, so I must be doing all right."

Torre said Bowa's decision was the right one.

"That was the only play for us," Torre said. "They had to make perfect throws, especially the relay. When Bo sent Reed, that is exactly what I would have done. Unfortunately, they made a perfect throw to the plate."

Well, let's think about that in a bit more detail.  I watched the replay a few times and it looks like Johnson is approaching 3rd base as the ball is thrown.  The breakeven distance for advancing from 3rd on a fly ball is about 250 feet - the ball wasn't hit nearly that far, but Johnson is also running as opposed to starting from a stop.  Based on run expectancy matrices, if they'd held him, the Dodgers could have expected approximately 0.5 future runs starting from 1st-and-3rd with two outs.  Some of that comes from big innings, so the Dodgers have maybe a 40% chance of scoring the tying run at the very least.  So the question becomes...

Did Reed Johnson have a 40% chance of scoring?  I'd argue not.  Fowler hit the cutoff man, who threw the ball to the catcher, and Johnson was out by about 10 feet.  I have a hard time believing that a mediocre runner had a 60% chance of scoring.  It might have been a 50-50 situation, certainly not as cut-and-dried as Bowa and Torre make it seem.

More photos » David Zalubowski - AP

5 months ago: Colorado Avalanche right winger Chris Stewart, center, slips past Los Angeles Kings defenseman Jack Johnson, left, to put a shot on goalie Jonathan Quick, right, in the first period of an NHL hockey game in Denver on Wednesday, March 24, 2010. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

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Not that any of you know this hockey sage, but I played beer league hockey with Blaine Rutland years ago, and he was also my roommate for a couple of years.  He was born in Moose Factory, grew up in Pembroke, and spent most of the time I knew him drinking and/or watching the Center Ice package in our living room.  His main claim to fame is that he was sitting next to Jonathan Cheechoo's parents at a Sharks game, introduced himself, said he was from Moose Factory too, and Cheechoo's parents just shrugged...Everyone's from Moose Factory, I guess...

Blaine also originated the theory that bears his name: "Young guys don't play defense."  Derek Zona and Ranger Smurf put that theory to the test this week and found 18- and 19-year-old NHL players severely lacking in the defense department.